價格很重要,請注意

煤炭利用天然氣價格上漲的優勢,突顯了燃料替代的彈性。

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特別是煤炭和天然氣之間的相對價格。今天,美國能源資訊署(EIA)釋出了一份更新報告,稱今年前七個月天然氣發電量與2012年同期相比下降了14%。另一方面,煤炭發電量增加了約7%。

今年上半年,由於需求增長快於供應(儘管大量產品被燃燒,但這有點難以置信),天然氣價格上漲了40-60%。但請記住,2012年也出現了十年來的最低天然氣價格。天然氣價格現在正在恢復到2009年至2011年期間的水平。

我不認為這預示著煤炭會在任何長期可持續的方式上出現明顯的復甦。天然氣必須變得非常昂貴,公用事業公司才會考慮建造帶有碳捕集技術的燃煤電廠。我認為這更多地突顯了該國發電結構中替代的彈性,也就是說,當一種燃料比另一種燃料更昂貴時,就從一種燃料轉向另一種燃料。但隨著老舊、效率較低的燃煤電廠退役,替代現象將會減少。

David Wogan is an engineer and policy researcher who writes about energy, technology, and policy.

David's academic and professional background includes a unique blend of technology and policy in the field of energy systems. Most recently, David worked at Austin Energy, a Texas municipal utility, implementing a Department of Energy stimulus grant related to energy efficiency. Previously, David was a member of the Energy & Climate Change team at the White House Council on Environmental Quality for the Obama Administration.

David holds two Master's degrees from The University of Texas at Austin in Mechanical Engineering and Public Affairs. While at UT, David was a researcher in the Webber Energy Group, where his research focused on advanced biofuel production to offset petroleum use in the transportation sector. David holds a Bachelor's of Science degree in Mechanical Engineering from The University of Texas at Austin, where he researched nuclear non-proliferation measurement technology.

David is a 2013 Aspen Institute Journalism Scholar, joining a select group of journalists from Slate, ABC News, and The New York Times.

David lives in Austin, Texas. Follow along on Twitter or email him at david.wogan@me.com.

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