神秘大氣河流侵襲加利福尼亞,特大洪水可能遲早會來

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本文發表於《大眾科學》的前部落格網路,反映作者的觀點,不一定代表《大眾科學》的觀點。


加利福尼亞州北部正經歷著一系列暴雨的最初幾天,天氣預報員警告說,這將是一連串漫長的暴雨,可能會在該州北部三分之一的地區造成嚴重洪災。連綿不斷的暴雨是由您可能從未聽說過的一種大氣現象驅動的:大氣河流。

哦,還有另一條大氣河流在上週在英格蘭西部和威爾士造成了自 1960 年代以來最嚴重的洪災,超過 1,000 戶家庭不得不撤離。

大氣河流是一條狹窄的蒸汽輸送帶,大約一英里高,從海上延伸數千英里,可以攜帶多達 15 條密西西比河的水量。它以一系列風暴的形式襲擊,持續數天或數週。每場風暴都會傾瀉數英寸的雨水或數英尺的雪。欲瞭解更多詳情,請參閱這篇專題報道,《大眾科學》剛剛發表,由兩位研究這些風暴的專家撰寫。


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科學家在 1998 年發現了大氣河流,並且直到最近才對其進行充分的表徵,以便預報員能夠警告它們的到來。它們可能會襲擊大多數大陸的西海岸,但加利福尼亞州似乎是主要目標。每年有多達九條小型大氣河流到達該州,每條持續兩到三天,包括著名的“菠蘿快車”風暴,它們直接來自太平洋的夏威夷地區。具有諷刺意味的是,雖然風暴很危險,但它們也至關重要;它們在一年中大約 10 天的時間裡,提供了加利福尼亞州 30% 到 50% 的雨雪。

特大洪水是否迫在眉睫?

然而,真正令人擔憂的是,根據最近拼湊起來的證據(以及上述文章中描述的),真正巨大的、導致災難性洪水的 атмосферные реки 似乎大約每 200 年襲擊該州一次。上次特大洪水發生在 1861 年;降雨持續了 43 天,摧毀了薩克拉門託並使該州破產。這場災難在很大程度上被遺忘,但同一地區現在居住著超過 600 萬人。對那裡 23 天風暴的模擬表明,將發生超過 4000 億美元的損失,遠遠超過颶風桑迪影響的 600 億美元估計。新的研究還表明,氣候變化可能會使這些風暴更有可能發生。

您可能會開始更頻繁地聽到“大氣河流”這個術語。天氣頻道在對加利福尼亞州北部以及俄勒岡州和華盛頓州海岸的警告中使用了它(帶引號)。一些大眾媒體也開始採用這個詞彙。

Mark Fischetti has been a senior editor at 大眾科學 for 17 years and has covered sustainability issues, including climate, weather, environment, energy, food, water, biodiversity, population, and more. He assigns and edits feature articles, commentaries and news by journalists and scientists and also writes in those formats. He edits History, the magazine's department looking at science advances throughout time. He was founding managing editor of two spinoff magazines: 大眾科學 Mind and 大眾科學 Earth 3.0. His 2001 freelance article for the magazine, "Drowning New Orleans," predicted the widespread disaster that a storm like Hurricane Katrina would impose on the city. His video What Happens to Your Body after You Die?, has more than 12 million views on YouTube. Fischetti has written freelance articles for the New York Times, Sports Illustrated, Smithsonian, Technology Review, Fast Company, and many others. He co-authored the book Weaving the Web with Tim Berners-Lee, inventor of the World Wide Web, which tells the real story of how the Web was created. He also co-authored The New Killer Diseases with microbiologist Elinor Levy. Fischetti is a former managing editor of IEEE Spectrum Magazine and of Family Business Magazine. He has a physics degree and has twice served as the Attaway Fellow in Civic Culture at Centenary College of Louisiana, which awarded him an honorary doctorate. In 2021 he received the American Geophysical Union's Robert C. Cowen Award for Sustained Achievement in Science Journalism, which celebrates a career of outstanding reporting on the Earth and space sciences. He has appeared on NBC's Meet the Press, CNN, the History Channel, NPR News and many news radio stations. Follow Fischetti on X (formerly Twitter) @markfischetti

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