美國東海岸極易遭受颶風洪水侵襲

我們的地圖顯示了各處地勢低窪、面臨風險的城市和海岸線,其中許多正在下沉

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颶風華金可能在本週末直撲美國東海岸。到目前為止,模型未能就風暴可能登陸地點達成一致,但從北卡羅來納州到馬薩諸塞州的海岸線都可能成為颶風前方高漲的海水或風暴潮的目標。即使風暴在北大西洋向東偏離,氣象預報員稱,風暴附近異常大的大氣壓力梯度也註定會將強風推向陸地數小時,帶來長時間的巨浪和暴雨。

無論哪種情況都可能導致洪水,因為沿海許多大城市和珍貴的沙灘都位於海平面以上僅一兩米處。下面由大眾科學開發的地圖顯示了一米高(紅色)或六米高(黃色)的風暴潮將到達內陸多遠。雖然六米的風暴潮很少見,但一到三米在北大西洋颶風中很常見;桑迪颶風帶來的最大風暴潮為四到五米高。

點選放大。 地圖由XNR Productions/Terra Carta製作。最初為馬克·費斯切蒂在2013年6月《大眾科學》雜誌上發表的“世紀風暴(每兩年一次)”一文製作


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地圖顯示了海平面上升在多年內可能如何影響海岸。但是,相同高度的風暴潮也將到達同樣遠的內陸。而且它會在一天之內到來。

保護城市之間長段海岸線最實用的方法是每五到十年從近海沉積物中抽取沙子到海灘上,以替換被潮汐、常見風暴和颶風侵蝕的沉積物。然而,尚不清楚是否存在足夠多的具有合適粒徑的沉積物來維持海灘或沙丘,以供幾十年以上的重複重建。而且,正如地圖所示,東海岸的大部分地區也在緩慢下沉,隨著時間的推移,洪水的可能性越來越大。

Mark Fischetti has been a senior editor at 大眾科學 for 17 years and has covered sustainability issues, including climate, weather, environment, energy, food, water, biodiversity, population, and more. He assigns and edits feature articles, commentaries and news by journalists and scientists and also writes in those formats. He edits History, the magazine's department looking at science advances throughout time. He was founding managing editor of two spinoff magazines: 大眾科學 Mind and 大眾科學 Earth 3.0. His 2001 freelance article for the magazine, "Drowning New Orleans," predicted the widespread disaster that a storm like Hurricane Katrina would impose on the city. His video What Happens to Your Body after You Die?, has more than 12 million views on YouTube. Fischetti has written freelance articles for the New York Times, Sports Illustrated, Smithsonian, Technology Review, Fast Company, and many others. He co-authored the book Weaving the Web with Tim Berners-Lee, inventor of the World Wide Web, which tells the real story of how the Web was created. He also co-authored The New Killer Diseases with microbiologist Elinor Levy. Fischetti is a former managing editor of IEEE Spectrum Magazine and of Family Business Magazine. He has a physics degree and has twice served as the Attaway Fellow in Civic Culture at Centenary College of Louisiana, which awarded him an honorary doctorate. In 2021 he received the American Geophysical Union's Robert C. Cowen Award for Sustained Achievement in Science Journalism, which celebrates a career of outstanding reporting on the Earth and space sciences. He has appeared on NBC's Meet the Press, CNN, the History Channel, NPR News and many news radio stations. Follow Fischetti on X (formerly Twitter) @markfischetti

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