海洋變暖沒有停頓

科學家而非政客解決了關於一系列有爭議的測量

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多項研究已經駁斥了全球變暖存在停頓或間斷的觀點——即本世紀頭十年全球地表溫度停止上升的說法。關於“停頓”的爭論在2015年6月之前有所緩和,當時美國國家海洋和大氣管理局(NOAA)在《科學》雜誌上發表了一篇論文,稱其對1900年代引用的海面溫度進行了略微修正。美國國家海洋和大氣管理局表示,基於船舶發動機進氣口感測器的方法存在缺陷。修正後的方法也意味著2000年代的海面溫度略高於報告水平。美國國家海洋和大氣管理局調整了這兩項記錄,從而得出結論,2000年代的全球地表溫度確實高於過去幾十年。沒有停頓。

批評人士攻擊美國國家海洋和大氣管理局,聲稱它篡改了資料,以駁回關於停頓的主張。德克薩斯州共和黨眾議員拉馬爾·史密斯對美國國家海洋和大氣管理局的科學家展開了國會調查,包括要求他們交出電子郵件,但他們沒有這樣做。

現在,獨立的科學家們已經加入了進來。《科學進展》週三發表的一項研究表明,美國國家海洋和大氣管理局所做的調整是合理的。由加州大學伯克利分校的澤克·豪斯法瑟和約克大學的凱文·考坦領導的研究小組分析了來自全球海洋浮標、衛星和機器人感測器的原始資料。他們得出結論,舊方法確實高估了過去的海面溫度,但較新的計算低估了2000年代的溫度。


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豪斯法瑟和考坦在週三在《大眾科學》網站上的客座部落格中解釋了他們的評論,並說明了為什麼此類調查應由獨立科學家而非政客進行。豪斯法瑟還在下面一個清晰有趣的影片中介紹了他的團隊分析的細節。

豪斯法瑟說:“最重要的是,美國國家海洋和大氣管理局做得對。他們沒有出於任何政治目的而操縱資料。變暖仍在繼續。”

Mark Fischetti has been a senior editor at 大眾科學 for 17 years and has covered sustainability issues, including climate, weather, environment, energy, food, water, biodiversity, population, and more. He assigns and edits feature articles, commentaries and news by journalists and scientists and also writes in those formats. He edits History, the magazine's department looking at science advances throughout time. He was founding managing editor of two spinoff magazines: 大眾科學 Mind and 大眾科學 Earth 3.0. His 2001 freelance article for the magazine, "Drowning New Orleans," predicted the widespread disaster that a storm like Hurricane Katrina would impose on the city. His video What Happens to Your Body after You Die?, has more than 12 million views on YouTube. Fischetti has written freelance articles for the New York Times, Sports Illustrated, Smithsonian, Technology Review, Fast Company, and many others. He co-authored the book Weaving the Web with Tim Berners-Lee, inventor of the World Wide Web, which tells the real story of how the Web was created. He also co-authored The New Killer Diseases with microbiologist Elinor Levy. Fischetti is a former managing editor of IEEE Spectrum Magazine and of Family Business Magazine. He has a physics degree and has twice served as the Attaway Fellow in Civic Culture at Centenary College of Louisiana, which awarded him an honorary doctorate. In 2021 he received the American Geophysical Union's Robert C. Cowen Award for Sustained Achievement in Science Journalism, which celebrates a career of outstanding reporting on the Earth and space sciences. He has appeared on NBC's Meet the Press, CNN, the History Channel, NPR News and many news radio stations. Follow Fischetti on X (formerly Twitter) @markfischetti

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