朝鮮是世界上第九個擁有核武器的國家嗎?

俄羅斯和美國的核武庫遠遠超過其他國家

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朝鮮領導人金正日的去世引起了國際社會對核武器威脅的關注。據廣泛報道,金正日一直在追求核彈頭和運載它們的彈道導彈,他主持了兩次核彈爆炸試驗(經地震儀證實)。朝鮮境外無人知曉這個秘密的極權主義國家是否擁有真正的彈頭。而且,沒有人完全確定金正日最年輕的兒子和推定繼任者金正恩在組建具有競爭力的核武庫的目標上持何種立場。

只需要一個核裝置和一個瘋狂的領導人就可能對全球造成破壞,但美國和世界其他七個國家擁有大量的核彈頭。羅伯特·S·諾里斯和漢斯·M·克里斯滕森在華盛頓特區的自然資源保護委員會於2009年底進行的最新統計(pdf)如下。俄羅斯和美國的核儲備遠遠超過其他國家。

  • 俄羅斯—13,000枚核彈頭

  • 美國—9,400枚

  • 法國—300枚

  • 中國—240枚

  • 英國—180枚

  • 以色列—80至100枚

  • 巴基斯坦—70至90枚

  • 印度—60至80枚

  • 朝鮮—未知


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諾里斯和克里斯滕森估計,俄羅斯的4850枚彈頭處於可操作狀態;其餘的則已退役或等待根據裁軍條約進行拆除。美國約有5200枚彈頭被認為是可操作的。在他們的報告中,諾里斯和克里斯滕森指出,“我們不知道關於朝鮮如何將核武器能力武器化的可靠資訊。” 他們補充說,美國空軍情報部門當時沒有表明該國的任何彈道導彈能夠攜帶核彈頭。

Mark Fischetti has been a senior editor at 大眾科學 for 17 years and has covered sustainability issues, including climate, weather, environment, energy, food, water, biodiversity, population, and more. He assigns and edits feature articles, commentaries and news by journalists and scientists and also writes in those formats. He edits History, the magazine's department looking at science advances throughout time. He was founding managing editor of two spinoff magazines: 大眾科學 Mind and 大眾科學 Earth 3.0. His 2001 freelance article for the magazine, "Drowning New Orleans," predicted the widespread disaster that a storm like Hurricane Katrina would impose on the city. His video What Happens to Your Body after You Die?, has more than 12 million views on YouTube. Fischetti has written freelance articles for the New York Times, Sports Illustrated, Smithsonian, Technology Review, Fast Company, and many others. He co-authored the book Weaving the Web with Tim Berners-Lee, inventor of the World Wide Web, which tells the real story of how the Web was created. He also co-authored The New Killer Diseases with microbiologist Elinor Levy. Fischetti is a former managing editor of IEEE Spectrum Magazine and of Family Business Magazine. He has a physics degree and has twice served as the Attaway Fellow in Civic Culture at Centenary College of Louisiana, which awarded him an honorary doctorate. In 2021 he received the American Geophysical Union's Robert C. Cowen Award for Sustained Achievement in Science Journalism, which celebrates a career of outstanding reporting on the Earth and space sciences. He has appeared on NBC's Meet the Press, CNN, the History Channel, NPR News and many news radio stations. Follow Fischetti on X (formerly Twitter) @markfischetti

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